College Football Betting: Analyzing the Profitability of Big 12 Over Bets

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The Big 12: A High-Octane Conference
The Big 12 is known for its high-scoring, pass-intensive, and fast-paced gameplay, with teams that seemingly never cease to push the ball downfield. This has resulted in scores that rival lottery jackpots, exemplified by a memorable Texas vs. West Virginia shootout on November 3, which perfectly captures the essence of today’s Big 12.

Watching these games is undoubtedly entertaining, and with such prolific scoring, bettors are inclined to favor the over in over/under bets.

But is betting over on Big 12 games a winning strategy? Does the conference’s tendency to produce high-scoring matches translate to success at the betting window, or should bettors consider other options like moneyline or point spread bets instead?

To answer these questions, our research team analyzed data from the first 10 weeks of the 2018 season.

Scoring Across Power 5 Conferences
Before delving into betting specifics, it’s important to note that over/under lines vary by game, and Big 12 games generally have higher over/under thresholds due to the conference’s scoring propensity.

Moreover, our analysis focused on Power 5 teams with winning records, as extremely poor performers can skew the results. For example, teams like Rutgers and Arkansas were excluded from our study due to their dismal performances.

In a comparison of scoring averages across Power 5 conferences, the Big 12 led with an average of 33.19 points per game, thanks to high-scoring teams like Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and West Virginia, all of which averaged over 40 points per game in the first 10 weeks. No other Power 5 conference had more than two teams averaging above 40 points.

The SEC followed with an average of 31.45 points per game, bolstered by Alabama’s leading score of 51.3 points per game. The ACC and Big Ten followed, with the Pac 12 trailing, being the only Power 5 conference without a team averaging over 40 points per game during this period.

Performance of Over/Under Bets in Power 5 Conferences
Despite its high scoring, does the Big 12’s average translate into successful over bets? Over the initial 10-week period, which generally consisted of nine games per team, Big 12 teams with winning records surpassed the projected total an average of 4.85 times — the highest rate among Power 5 conferences.

The ACC was second, with its winning teams exceeding the over total 4.44 times on average. The Big Ten, SEC, and Pac 12 followed, with the Pac 12 teams particularly underperforming against their over totals.

These results are influenced by various factors, including the smaller number of winning teams in the Big 12, which stood at seven, compared to 11 in the SEC and 10 in the Pac 12.

Highlight Teams for Over/Under Betting
Certain teams consistently surpass their totals. Oklahoma, Baylor, and Texas Tech each exceeded their game totals six times in the first 10 weeks. In contrast, in the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC, only one team per conference matched this performance, with none in the Pac 12.

Teams to watch out for include Georgia Tech, Iowa, and Missouri, who led their leagues in overs, surpassing expectations more frequently than higher-profile teams like Clemson or Ohio State.

Conclusion: Big 12’s Betting Viability
The analysis confirms that the Big 12 not only leads in scoring but also in the profitability of over bets, with the highest average of winning teams beating the over/under line. The league’s reputation for high scoring is well-earned, though caution is advised—avoid getting carried away with teams like Kansas or Kansas State, which do not fit this high-scoring mold.

This comprehensive look reveals the Big 12 as a prime conference for over bettors, providing valuable insights for those looking to capitalize on this fast-paced, high-scoring league.

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